Last year, I used this space to report a statistical analysis I’d done on the impact of successful coups on countries’ economic growth rates. Bottom line: they usually hurt. As summarized in this chart from a post at FiveThirtyEight, my analysis indicated that, on average, coups dent a country’s economy by a couple of percentage points in the year they happen and another point the year after. Those are not trivial effects.
What makes this question so tricky to analyze is the possibility of a two-way relationship between these things. It’s not hard to imagine that coups might damage national economies, but it’s also likely that countries suffering slower growth are generally more susceptible to coups. With country-year data and no experimental controls, we can’t just run a model with growth as the dependent variable and the occurrence of a coup as a predictor and expect to get a reliable estimate of the former on the latter.
In my statistical analysis, I tried to deal with this problem by using coarsened exact matching to focus the comparison on sets of country-years with comparable coup risk in which coups did or did not happen. I believe the results are more informative than what we’d get from a pooled sample of all country-years, but they certainly aren’t the last word. After all, matching does not magically resolve deeper identification problems, even if it can help.
Under these circumstances, a little process-tracing can go a long way. If we look at real-world cases and see processes linking the “treatment” (coups) to the hypothesized effect (economic damage), we bolster our confidence that the effect we saw in our statistical analysis is not ephemeral.
Here, the recent coup in Thailand is serving up some intriguing evidence. In the past week, I have seen two reports identifying specific ways in which the coup itself, and not the instability that preceded and arguably precipitated it, is damaging Thailand’s economy. First, I saw this Reuters story (emphasis mine):
Thai officials said on Tuesday that the mass departure of Cambodian laborers would dent the economy as thousands more migrant workers, fearing reprisals from the new military government, poured across the border.
Around 170,000 Cambodian workers have headed home in the past week, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), although the exodus is now slowing. Many left after hearing rumors that Thailand’s junta was bent on cracking down on illegal migrants.
Then I saw this tidbit in a Credit Suisse analysis shared on Twitter by Andrew Marshall (emphasis mine):
The coup and martial laws have produced stronger negative impact on Thai tourism, worsening the 2014 earnings outlook and could affect the magnitude of recovery anticipated for 2015…
Based on our conversations with [Airports of Thailand Plc], the coup…appears to have had a stronger impact on its international passenger volumes than the political conflicts… While the coup has restored peace in Bangkok and Thailand, and comforted the Thai people [!], we reckon tourists may take this more negatively and have chosen to go to other destinations.
In a country where international tourism contributes nearly 10 percent of the gross domestic product (here), that impact is a serious issue.
What’s important about both of these reports for the question at hand is the explicit connection they make between the occurrence of the coup and the economy-damaging behavior that followed. To me, these look like consequences rather than coincidences. Neither report definitively proves that the occurrence of a coups usually has an independent, negative effect on a country’s economic growth rate, of course. But they do make me more confident that the effect I saw in my statistical analysis is not just an artifact of some deeper forces I failed to consider.