What Should the U.S. Do Now in Syria?

You tell me.

To help you do that, I’ve created a pairwise wiki survey on All Our Ideas. Click HERE to participate. You can vote on the options I listed or add your own.

Results are updated in real time. Just click on the View Results tab to see what the crowd is saying so far.

Before you add an idea, make sure it isn’t already covered in the existing set by clicking on the View Results tab and then the View All button at the bottom of the list.

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1 Comment

  1. Jeremy Pam

     /  August 31, 2013

    pairwise wiki survey. Its being developed by a Princeton-based research project called All Our Ideas , and according to its creators , here is how it works:

    [A pairwise wiki survey] consists of a single question with many possible answer items. Respondents can participate in a pairwise wiki survey in two ways: fi rst, they can make pairwise comparisons between items (i.e., respondents vote between item A and item B); and second, they can add new items that are then presented to future respondents.

    The resulting pairwise votes are converted into aggregate ratings using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates collective preferences most consistent with the observed data.

    Pairwise wiki surveys werent designed specifically for forecasting, but I think we can readily adapt them to versions that task that involve comparisons of risk. Instead of asking which item in a pair respondents prefer, we can ask them which item in a pair is more likely. The resulting scores wont quite be the forecasts were looking for, but theyll contain a lot of useful information about rank ordering and relative likelihoods.

    http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/using-wiki-surveys-to-forecast-rare-events/

    Reply

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